DETERMINING PREDICTION SUCCESSIn order to be an effective trader, with the types of financial benefits that are in our opinion only available in the markets that we follow, you must be able to consistently identify profitable opportunities. At The Futures Wizard, you will find that ability with a high degree of accuracy.
Prediction accuracy, as well as profitability discussed below, is the cornerstone of any successful financial publication geared toward assisting members to be elite and successful participants in the investment community. As we discuss in our “Wizard Wisdom” page, a forecast is not a prediction! The cardinal principal of The Futures Wizard is to add value to our members through the dissemination of accurate and profitable predictions in the world’s most fascinating markets.
As a financial publishing company, TFW does not engage in particularized investment advice nor does it act in a fiduciary capacity to its members. Our purpose is to add value to a wide range of potential investors through the publication of successful market predictions.
THE MANNER IN WHICH THE FUTURES WIZARD’S PREDICTIONS ARE DETERMINED FOR ACCURACY ENTAILS THE FOLLOWING:
On occasion, and depending on market conditions, TFW will disseminate an initial prediction to members regarding the movement of a particular market. We may also express the opinion that a particular position should be taken in order to capitalize on that prediction. In some instances, The Futures Wizard will also make another recommendation based on market fluctuations to “average in” on a given position. This means taking another position on the same side of the market to average in the price level of a given trade.
This is typically done for two reasons. In the first instance, the strategy results in a larger position in the predicted market. The second reason is to decrease (or increase in the case of a short position) the average price level of a given trade. This occurs when a market does not immediately move in the direction of The Futures Wizard’s predictions yet we remain confident that the market will do so in short order. This may occur due to the normal breathing and fluctuations of the markets.
THIS IS NOT UNCOMMON. And while many typical traders get “shaken out” of the market at a loss, The Futures Wizard’s strategies are designed to enhance profitability. Depending on the particular membership level of a given member, “averaging in,” may or may not be feasible. In any event, these strategies will be readily available to our members and will be posted in accordance with your type of membership.
Accuracy is important but Profitability is how Success is determined!
If no recommendation to “averaging in” is disseminated then the prevailing price level, when the prediction was initially disseminated, will be used to determine the success of a given prediction. If a trade is held for longer than one trading session – which will typically be the case– and if there is ever any dispute, the price that will be used to determine profitability will be the most favorable to our members. The method employed to assuage any concerns will be any price level, at our members discretion, within 5 minutes of the time that the closing prediction is disseminated on the exchange where the underlying market is traded.
This again will be based on the prevailing price levels during the interim 5 minute period on the appropriate intraday chart of the exchange or market where the product is traded. To propound this point further, the most favorable price level during that 5 minute period will be used in the determination process. This process will be obviously irrelevant, and hence not posted, for prediction price levels that fall outside these price ranges.
Moreover, if any trade, based on the mathematics discussed above, does not result in a profit of at least $50.00 per unit or contract, based on our calculation methodology described above, than that trade will be nullified and will not count as an accurate, or an inaccurate, trade prediction made by The Futures Wizard.
The Futures Wizard’s prediction accuracy is promulgated exclusive of potential actual spreads, commissions, liquidity, and fill price, all of which may implicate a given trade, and should be considered, and accepted, as mandatory variables of trading in leveraged markets. TFW’s accounting does take these factors into consideration and has devised an accounting structure for determining prediction accuracy that we feel is extremely favorable to our members. This is particularly true in liquid markets which will constitute the lion’s share of all predictions published.
For publications that entail trades that are to be entered and exited during the same trading session- which should be comparatively rare- then common sense will dictate. By this we mean that the accuracy of a given prediction in these circumstances will typically be glaringly obvious as, due to The Futures Wizard’s methodology, the publication of a trade will normally be exited on the same day it was entered only in the event that there has been a significant market movement. On the rare occurrence that there is a dispute, or any perceived uncertainty, the price level used will be based on a 5 minute intraday chart reflecting the actual price levels of the market or exchange for which the publication was made. Our members will receive the benefit of the most favorable price level during this time frame.
Regarding “averaging in,” the average price based upon one such recommendation to “average in” (which is mathematical but will be based on prevailing real time pricing) will be used to determine if a prediction is correct using the same methodology described above. Should TFW recommend “averaging in” for a second time the trade will automatically be considered inaccurate for certain memberships. Regarding memberships that are based on theoretical $50,000 accounts, or greater, than there may be an unlimited number of averaging recommendations disseminated. As long as the trade ends up being profitable, based on the aforementioned methodology, then the trade will be considered accurate if it ultimately results in a profit.
IN THE END, ALL REASONABLE PRICE LEVELS ARE CLEARLY TO BE RESOLVED IN THE FAVOR OR OUR MEMBERS AND COMPREHENSIVE ANALYSIS HAS LED TO OUR ASSERTION THAT THIS IS THE FAIREST METHODOLOGY EMPLOYED FOR DETERMINING MARKET PREDICTION ACCURACY FROM ANY ANALYST OR FINANCIAL PUBLISHER FOUND ANYWHERE IN LEVERAGED MARKET ANALYSIS. SHOULD ANY MEMBER UNVEIL A MORE FAVORABLE METHOD OF DETERMINING PRICE LEVEL, THAT IS WIDELY DISSEMINATED, THE FUTURES WIZARD WILL MATCH THAT METHODOLOGY. WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE THAT THIS WILL OCCUR.
Prediction with Success with the use of Options
When a publication is accompanied by an opinion that involves taking advantage of a prediction with the use of options, the success/accuracy determination of whether the trade was profitable will be determined in one of two ways.
As is intrinsic in the nature of options, they may be traded based on the underlying value of the option itself (in which case profitability and accuracy will be determined in an identical manner to the outright positions described above) or they may be “exercised.” When the underlying financial market has reached a price level that engenders the option to be “in the money” the strike price for that option is deducted if a “call option” is involved (or added in the case of a “put option”) from the prevailing market price when The Futures Wizard recommends closing a given option position.
As with all markets, there will be vagaries in the actual price level in the case of “in the money options” depending on liquidity, execution price, and commissions (however, we believe that these factors should not reach a level that will change the outcome of a prediction as the precise methodology for calculating the accuracy of outright positions is disseminated).
Naturally, in the event of a recommendation to exercise an option position, the premium involved in the pricing of the option will also be deducted in order to determine the success of our publication. In order to be an effective trader, and to be rewarded with the types of financial benefits available in the markets that we follow, you must be able to successfully predict market movements on a consistent basis.
At The Futures Wizard, you will find UNPARALLELED accuracy in the publications we disseminate.
The cardinal principal that we adhere to entails adding value through the consistent publication of successful predictions.”
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